Small business optimism in the United States continued to increase at the end of 2025, according to new survey results from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.5 points in December to reach 99.5, remaining above its long-term average for a 52-year period.
The rise in optimism was largely attributed to more owners expecting better business conditions. The Uncertainty Index also dropped significantly, falling by seven points from November to reach its lowest level since June 2024.
“2025 ended with a further increase in small business optimism,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While Main Street business owners remain concerned about taxes, they anticipate favorable economic conditions in 2026 due to waning cost pressures, easing labor challenges, and an increase in capital investments.”
In Colorado, small business owners continue to face regulatory hurdles despite improving sentiment. “While optimism is improving, Colorado’s small business owners are still contending with an onerous regulatory environment,” said NFIB State Director Michael Smith. “Last year, the General Assembly imposed more red tape on small businesses and made them unpaid tax collectors on behalf of the state. This week, as the legislative session gets underway, Main Street is asking lawmakers to protect the Labor Peace Act and resist policy proposals that make it harder to do business in our state.”
Alongside its monthly report, NFIB released a new episode of its podcast “Small Business by the Numbers.” Hosted by Holly Wade and Peter Hansen from the NFIB Research Center, the podcast discusses data and economic trends affecting small businesses across the country.
Key findings from December’s survey show that taxes were identified as the most significant problem for 20% of small business owners—the highest share since May 2021 and up six points from November. Reports of both actual and planned price increases declined compared with November; however, price hikes remain above historical averages.
A net negative three percent of respondents reported paying higher interest rates on their most recent loans—a drop from previous months—while borrowing activity remains historically low.
Job openings persistently outpaced historical norms: Thirty-three percent reported job openings they could not fill during December. Among those hiring or attempting to hire (53%), most reported few or no qualified applicants available for open positions.
Capital spending increased slightly: Fifty-six percent reported making capital outlays over the past six months. More businesses acquired vehicles or improved facilities than in prior months.
Sales performance remained subdued compared with historical averages but showed slight improvement over November figures. Inventory gains also reached their highest point for 2025 so far.
Supply chain disruptions affected sixty-four percent of respondents’ businesses; however, there was a shift toward milder impacts rather than significant ones.
Profit trends showed some improvement: A net negative twenty percent reported positive profit trends—an increase over November—with weaker sales cited as a primary reason for lower profits among those affected.
Evaluations of overall business health were mixed: Nine percent rated their company’s condition as excellent (down two points), while fifty-four percent called it good (up one point).
Survey data comes from randomly selected members of NFIB and has been collected quarterly since late 1973 and monthly since 1986. The December survey was conducted during that month with results published on January 13, 2026.
