The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 0.2 points in January to 99.3, but remained above its 52-year average of 98, according to the latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Of the ten components measured in the index, three showed increases while seven decreased. The most notable change was a six-point rise in expected real sales volume. The Uncertainty Index also rose by seven points to 91, mainly due to more business owners expressing uncertainty about expanding their operations.
“While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.”
Michael Smith, NFIB State Director for Colorado, commented on local conditions: “It’s no wonder that many of our members in Colorado are in a wait-and-see mode when it comes to decisions about expanding their small businesses. Last week, the Legislature debated major changes to the Labor Peace Act. Next week, lawmakers will consider creating a new so-called ‘workplace safety’ regulatory regime that mirrors OSHA. The pace and scale of these proposed changes leave Main Street employers wondering which rules will still apply, and how they’ll afford to comply. We’re asking lawmakers to resist policies that make it harder to own and operate a small business in our state.”
A new feature of this month’s report is the NFIB Small Business Employment Index, which consolidates several labor-related questions into one metric. This index stood at 101.6—about 1.5 points above its historical average—indicating a balanced labor market.
Other key findings from January include:
– Thirteen percent of owners identified insurance costs or availability as their top concern—the highest since December 2018.
– Sixty percent reported capital outlays over the past six months—the highest since November 2023.
– Sixteen percent cited labor quality as their main issue—a decrease for the third consecutive month.
– Thirty-one percent had job openings they could not fill—still above the historical average.
– A net negative six percent reported paying higher interest rates on recent loans—a slight improvement from December.
– Inventory gains were at their highest level since January 2023.
Supply chain disruptions continued to affect many businesses; sixty-two percent reported some impact from supply chain issues, though this was down slightly from December.
Inflationary pressures persisted as twenty-six percent of owners raised average selling prices—well above historic averages—and thirty-two percent planned further price increases over the next three months.
Overall business health saw improvement with fourteen percent rating their business as excellent (up five points), while those rating it as fair dropped by seven points.
When asked about future expansion plans, fifteen percent felt it was a good time to expand—a modest increase but still low compared with periods of economic expansion.
Taxes remained the most commonly cited problem among respondents at eighteen percent; other concerns included labor quality (sixteen percent), insurance costs (thirteen percent), inflation (twelve percent), and government regulations (nine percent).
The survey data were collected from randomly selected NFIB members nationwide during January 2026 and reflect ongoing trends monitored by monthly surveys since 1986.
The National Federation of Independent Business serves as an advocate for small and independent businesses across all fifty states—including Colorado—by providing legislative support and resources such as research and compliance guidance (official website). The organization works to promote policies aimed at fostering economic growth for small businesses (official website), offers tools tailored for compliance needs (official website), and conducts regular surveys on economic conditions affecting business owners (official website).
For additional information or resources related to supporting small businesses in Colorado or elsewhere, visit NFIB’s official website.
