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Friday, January 17, 2025

Small business optimism reaches highest level since October 2018

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Michael Smith NFIB Director | NFIB Colorado

Michael Smith NFIB Director | NFIB Colorado

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by 3.4 points in December, reaching 105.1, the highest level since October 2018. Seven of the ten components of the index saw increases, while two decreased and one remained unchanged. The Uncertainty Index dropped by 12 points to 86.

"Optimism on Main Street continues to grow with the improved economic outlook following the election," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. He noted that small business owners are feeling more hopeful about the economic policies anticipated from the new administration, which are expected to foster growth and improve business conditions.

Although state-specific data was not provided, NFIB State Director Michael Smith called for lawmakers to focus on reforms beneficial to small businesses. "With the legislative session underway here in Denver, lawmakers have an incredible opportunity to build on the optimism small business owners are feeling and deliver real results to strengthen our state's economy," he stated.

Key findings revealed that expectations for economic improvement rose by 16 points from November, marking a net 52%, the highest since late 1983. The percentage of owners considering it a good time for expansion increased by six points to 20%, while those expecting higher sales volumes went up eight points to a net 22%. A net 6% of owners planned inventory investments in upcoming months, reflecting a five-point increase from November.

Compensation adjustments were reported by a net 29% of owners, showing a decline of three points from November. Additionally, only a net negative 1% viewed current inventories as too low in December.

A total of twenty percent identified inflation as their main operational challenge, unchanged from November but surpassing labor quality concerns by one point. Reports indicated that job openings were challenging to fill for many business owners despite ongoing hiring efforts.

Fifty-six percent reported capital outlays within six months prior, with significant investments in equipment and facilities improvements. Expectations for future capital expenditures slightly declined compared to previous months.

Nominal sales figures remained consistent with previous reports, though positive profit trends were negatively impacted due mainly to weaker sales and material costs according to respondents.

Credit access appeared satisfactory for most; however, some challenges persisted in obtaining loans compared to past attempts. The survey's findings were gathered from NFIB members during December 2024 and released monthly by the NFIB Research Center.

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